Friday, September 30, 2011

Some more guaranteed profits

Well, I have a trailing stop on the USDCAD, and as I am writing, it is up 167 pips, so that is a guaranteed 117 pip profit with no risk of losing it.

The strategy seems to be catching some really good moves that will pay us really quite well.

I will keep up the good work, and I am still looking out for more moves in the other currencies. There is a good chance that this will roll over the weekend, but that is not too much of a problem. 2 weeks, and 2 good profits (although we are still running with this one as it stands!)

We are still only risking 3% of the total account (seriously a drawdow of 3% max on any one position is fantastic)and yet we are still making some really good money. It will work out that we will have been able to increase the account size by nearly 10% by the end of 4 weeks trading if this keeps going.

Do not believe the hype that you can double your account in a month. This will mean that you are risking far to much, and you will be saying bye bye to your account very quickly.

I would have hapy to be banking $50 a month knowing that the risk of me losing $500 is next to minimal.

In a years time, the account could well be up to $5000 making me $500 a month. That is a holiday every month if I were to withdraw!

Risk a lot at your peril!!!

It is still early days for the strategy, so we will see where it takes us, but so far even I am impressed with the results I am getting. Sticking to the trading rules is proving very very important, and more importantly proving that they are valid signals that I am getting.

Do not get me wrong, I m sure that there are some other people out there that can get much better results risking the same amount, but so far I am very happy with the results - it is very low maintenance, and so far (fingers crossed it carries on) I am just banking money every time I put a trade on...

Happy days!

Happy trading everyone, and hope you have a great weekend!

Thursday, September 29, 2011

New trade activated

The USDCAD trade has been triggered at 1.02930 for a buy.

I don't think that there will a massive profit here, and it will need to be monitored quite closely, but here goes for trade number 2! Let's see if we can get some more profit on this one.

I have been monitoring this currecny pair since the last time we missed it. It has taken a massive move, so whether it can maintain it - not really sure, but we will know in the next couple of days!

Happy trading

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

The times they are a changing

Well, it looks like the markets are starting to change, and we are starting to see EUR improve a little bit.

So we are still watching the EURGBP andadded to that a few more currencies. Nothing is going to be triggered anytime within the next day or so, but I am keeping my beady eye out for them when they do come.

I have been looking into my margin call requiremenets, and because I will only ever be looking to risk about 3% on each trade, I could quite happily have 10 open positions going to full loss at any time - this would be 30% of my capital lost, and I would still be very far away from ever receiveing that dreaded margin call.

Money management is key. Minimising your risk is the most important thing in Forex. It is not a case of getting into trades, it is a case of having money availbale to get into trades tomorrow. There is no point in trying to make lots of money. If you commit 100% of your money in each trade, regardless of how much mnoey you make, you will end up with zero. You may be absolutely correct in all your analysis, but the markets do not listen to your analysis!

Some sobering reading in that if you risk 50% of your bankroll and lose, you have to increase your bankroll by 100% to get to the point you started off at.

This is not a get rich quick scheme- that is proven by us not having loads of trades (I want to trade when the markets tell me I can, not when i want).

This is supposed to be striving for financial independence over the long term.

Some stats (based on the trade the other day)

If we started off with a bank of $500, after 10 trades of winning 3% (and compounding the wins to the next trade) You would have $682 - an increase of $182, or increasing your account by 35%.

However, after 20 trades, you would have $903, a profit of $403, that is an increase of 80%,

After 40 trades, you would have $1631, a massive increase of 262%.

This of course does not look at losing trades, however, a 3% increase per trade is well doable (as an average, considering that we increased our account by 4.4% on one trade, and the USDCAD trade we should have been in would have represented an increase of 6.6%!!!)

Hopefully this will give you some idea of just how powerful money management is, and that risking the house on a gamble is not neccesary to get big returns.

Happy trading!

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Watching GBPUSD

Well, most of the markets are trending quite strongly at the moment, and have done for the past week. It would be very easy to get into quite a few trades and make a tidy little profit - however, that woudl take a lot of time sitting in front of the computer, making sure that you can get out as quickly as possible if the trade did go against you - which is why I am not getting into any trades at the moment. If i were to do that, then I woudl not be following my strategy rules effectively.

With that said, there is a good chance that in the next couple of days we could have a signal to get into the GBPUSD (To sell which is contrary to where the currency looks to be heading) I think that this is more of a little false peak, and it will soon turn downwards again. Even if I am wrong, it would be no disaster, as I will only get into the trade if the indicators say I should - this will almost guarantee that the trade will go to profit (looking at the backtesting in any case... which can be very misleading in my opinion - but it is still nice to be able to look back saying that the strategy has never lost... )

I can not see anything else on the horizon as of yet, but the markets will change, and I will be there to try to catch them.

Just a reminder, that the last trade was +220 pips, and the other one I pointed out (but focused on the other trade so missed the boat) went to about 380+ pips that woudl have given us a 330 pip profit (with the 50 pip trailing stop).

That would mean that we woudl have had about a 10% increase in one or two weeks!

Friday, September 23, 2011

Trading rules

So after yesterdays closing result of +220 pips, we now need to look to the future.

Looking at the charts, most of them seem to be trending quite strongly, which is great for getting on the band wagon, however this does not suit with the trading rules of getting into a trade - all the analysis is off at the moment (well except for one indicator, but I need all of my indicators to line up before I enter a trade - which makes this strategy so powerful). This means that we have 2 options:

1) Look at shortening the timeframe of the charts - I am trading on a 4 hourly time frame, which means that I have lots of opportunity for the trade to go in the direction I want, and also for it to get the maximum profit while at the same time minimising my risk- this marying off the best profit conditions, with either the ndicators pointing to get out of the trade due to sudden movements - this will actually mean we get out before a stop loss is hit, or if it is a slow moving turn in the charts, we simply go to the stop loss and get out automatically.

2) Wait until the markets change.

There is a great book called market wizards, which goes into detail about incredibly successful traders and their ability to ride the highs and lows - it is a really intriguing read (you can get it from Amazon - see the link on the right. The reoccurring thoughts in the book is that trading has to be emotionless, and the more greedy you are, the more you will lose. For that reason, I am not overly bothered about jumping into another trade, especially one where the trade is on a shorter timeframe where I am not prepared to sit in front of the charts waiting for something good - or bad to happen.

From this, the option 2 is the prefered solution. We will wait until a good trade comes our way. This system will make money regardless if we have to wait 100 more days for them to change (which lets face it, it won't happen). This was shown with my earlier analysis on the USDCAD pair, where, if I had not been so focused on the EURUSD pair we actually traded, We could have been up about 500 pips by today (although I think we would have been stopped out at during one of the previous days...). Out of two trades - one actual, and one promised, but not executed, already the system is looking good. I still will not be drawn into believeing that it is foolproof just yet, but the signs are looking promising at the moment.

Anyways, here's to a good weekend, and let's hope that next week we can get even more winners as the markets hit their peaks and bottoms and start to look to change (of course, in this climate, who can say if that will happen?....... ok My strategy can ;-) )

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Trailing stop triggered

My trailing stop was triggered - I had it set at 50 pips, and it was stopped out at 1.34356.

This gives us a massive profit of 220 pips for a 4 days being in the trade.

A great first result i think all round. This has increased my account size by $22 with a max risk of only $15.

So we will now wait until the next trade. I am going to create a table to show all the trades (winners and losers when (hopefully not though!) and if they come.

A great first effort, and gives us a running total of +220 pips.

Normally, I would increase my sizings as my account goes up, but I will only give points results on here for eases sakes for looking at winners and losers. In real terms it is even level stakes.

My belief is that this was on the high side of what I would expect, but certainly not what i want. The EURUSD was in a massive down trend, so when we get these - and we will, we canreally look to proift handsomely off them.

Good trading!!!

The profits are coming in and guaranteed

So the EURUSD has sunk again, and we are firmly in profit on our trade, 100+ pips. All this and not risking 3% of our account. With an account of $500 (which i have) I had a stop loss at 150 pips, so this would equate to $15 in real money (as i am only using micro lots - 1 pip = $0.10). It did get a little bit hairy yesterday, as there was a massive jump, but the real point is having firm rules to get in and out of trades is a must.

As of writing, the EURUSD is sitting at 1.35272, and is on a downward trend (although I expect it to bounce back up and then continue it's downward trend further). Due to having a guranteed profit, I want to let my profits run, and especially because the recent trend, and the breakthrough of the resistance says it is going to go lower. This is where having a trailing stop comes in very handy. The trick is choosing by how much you let it trail to allow enough room for you to get more profit, without losing all your gains. I have my own rules, and expect there to be more to be had out of this trade.

I could have been in another trade on the USDCAD, but missed the boat through one reason or another, so we missed out on that. Not the worst thing to happen as there will be more trades. The first and most important thing is to be making money, and this has been achieved in this trade.

Heres to some more profit in the next couple of days!

Happy trading!

Monday, September 19, 2011

First trade activated

Ok, the great news is that we have our first trade that has been activated.

This will be to sell the EURUSD.

We will see how this goes, but the trade was executed when the rate was 1.36552. so anything below this we are in profit (minus the spread of course, but for eases sake as already mentioned, I am not taking this into account. Hopefully the wins on this will make the spreads pointless (because we are looking at a decent size profit, although it does of course mean that it will not be 100% accurate (although it will still be 98% accurate give or take a percent). The reasons for doing this is to prove it works, and show that there is undeniable profit potential in this strategy.

One thing to remember, I am not aiming for the highs and lows, to predict them 100% is impossible, so if we go in the red, that is not a problem, we are looking for the trend here, and there will be some ups and downs, as long as the downs and ups get lower and lower, that will result in a profit for this one trade.

I have decided that, the $250 starting bank is not going to be adhered to. I am going to do this on a points basis as it will make it a lot easier to present and will be easier on the eyes when trying to compute the information... Needless to say, depending on the lot sizes you want to use, says how much you win or lose, so risk and the rest can be assesed on that basis.

Happy trading!

Friday, September 16, 2011

EURUSD to watch

My next currecny to watch is the EURUSD. I hav eseen some movement which may be profitable. Obviously over the last few days, the EURUSD has been falling quite substantially and I would not be suprised if it had just about bottomed out, however, my charts are telling me that it could continue a decline.

If I had started this test a few months ago, I could well have been quids in, and increased my account by about 100% by holding this one currency alone. As it stands though, I might be coming into this party once all the good alcohol has been drunk, and I am left with the non alcoholic drinks... refreshing but not quite satisfactory!!!

Any ways, whether I make a lot of profit or a small profit, the main thing is making a profit. Getting plus numbers is the only name of the game here.

In actual fact, I woudl not be surprised with some interesting movements in the next few weeks, and certainly trades will offer themselves over time. Patience is definately a virute, although the excitemtn and impatience to just place a trade is sometimes a tad overwhelming, having a great trading plan, with firm rules in place will stop silly trades being entered into.

Happy trading as always!

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

The first currency pair to look at

Well, I know that I have just posted the first blog, but time waits for no man.

The first currency trade is almost set up. This is on the USDCAD currecny pair. I am only waiting for confirmation, and then we could be in our first trade. I am also looking at trying to get some easy spot currency widgets on the blog to make it nice and easy for everyone to see what the current prices are- this would give everyone visiting an easy reference guide to when I am in profit.... and I suppose when I am not!

The great thing about this, is that all my results are there for everyone to see, and hopefully in the future, if I were to sell the strategy, I will have lots of backed up 'live' results for everyone to see.

Happy days!

What is it

100percentforex is a new blog that I am creating to show how having a good strategy in Forex will make you money.

I will be starting off on a demo account to show the basics. Moving to a real money account is slightly different, as there are a lot more fees to pay which will muddy the waters in terms of gross profit for the strategy.

A few ground rules:

1) I will not reveal my signals, so please do not ask. By all means follow the trades, I will post what trades I am in, however, it may be that you get in too late so any losses you experience, I will not take accountability for! I want this to show you that making money on forex is not pie in the sky, but tangible.

2) I base my trades on technicals, although fundamentals in the market will of course play their part - for example, the uncertainty of Greece's debt will affect the Euro, however, the fundametals play into our hands, as the technicals I use will catch these movements as well

3) I use stop losses to manage my risk. Forex is all about stayin in the game. Profits are nice, avoiding big losses is key. I am confident that my strategy will provide lots of winners and only a few losers, but this is a forward test. I can look back and see that all the trades would end up as a winner... of course they would, or I would not be forward testing it! Losers should be expected, and they will happen. This does not mean that it is a losing system.

4) I will be starting with a 'deposit' that is in everyone's reach. I have thought long and hard about this, and I will be using $250 as my starting point. The reason being is that anyone who is serious about making money, needs an investment that matches the ambition. However, not everyone can deposit $1 million to make money with. What this emans fundamentally, is that the profit and subsequent losses will be on the small side in terms of actual money. What we shall be focusing on however is the percentage return (again this is gross starting out, as it is a demo account and will not take into account the taxes and so forth that a real money account will do.

5) After a successful period of testing, I will go live with a deposit in the region of c. $800 (£500 in GBP - although that depends on the markets!)

6) I shall stick as much as possible to the majors. The reason for this, is that broker spreads are less on the majors, although if there is a good trade set up, then I would rather take the spread than the loss of not being in the trade!

7) I shall not be trading every day. I have a fixed set of rules to get into a trade, and these shall not be broken. These are part of my trading plan, and if I were to break these - even to keep the interest of this blog up and going, I will find that I have a losing system. There will always be trades to be had as long as I have money to put into them - missing a poor trade is better than losing!

8) My time frame for a trade will be quite long. I will be using the H4 (every bar on the chart is 4 hours) so I will be in trades for approx. 5 - 20 days. I have tried testing this system in other time frames and it does not seem to work particularly well. What this does mean, is that I will go far down into a drawdown (per trade not against the overall account) but at the same time, my profits should be that much greater as well.

9) Taking profits shall be from the chart. I have firm rules to get out of a trade-either it goes to full loss because it was never in profit or the rules I have set out mean that it has a small loss or a small gain - or it has a gain somewhere in between a lot, or a little. I will also be making use of trailing stops so that if a trade were to go against me, I am protected (although I would prefer not to use them to let the profits run. Saying that the Trailing stop will be quite big).

That is it really. I will give some commentary of the markets as I see them, and will be back from time to time. This blog will proabbly not be updated every day, but I will give information on the trades - when i get into them, What lot size I am using, the max risk to the account what currency I am long/short on and all the other data you will need to either trade them or simply to verify the trades I am making.

What does the future hold for 100percentforex?

Well if this is successful, I would like to aim to sell my system - Afterall, why not? The first 10 followers of this blog will get the strategy for free, and if i release any products, then they will get 50% off. The strategy itself is pretty simple and straightforward, but as I have found out, the simple strategies are often the best when it comes to making unclouded decisions. Just because it is simple does not mean it will not make money!