This one was on the USDCHF. I actually took the trade yesterday evening, but was not close to a computer to update the blog to let everyone know.
I bought at 0.92133 at 17:15 and it was closed out just a few minutes ago at 0.92200 (again I raised my stop to break even, but managed to take a couple of pips in the process.
I have started using a spreadsheet called DDSM which is an automatic spreadsheet that gives you lot sizes against risk. It looks to be very handy, as over the course of 20 trades, if you win 10 trades at 100 pips each, and then lose 100 10 trades at 100 pips each - you will come out with a hefty profit. Likewise if you lose 10 then win 10 you still come out ahead. A very useful tool indeed - it ensures that you have every chances of earning money over the long term.
Anyway, my lot size on this occasion using this spreadsheet and using past performance would have been 0.13, and the account balance would have been $1387.93! Quite a bit more than my other bank balance without using the spreadsheet... This small pip gain would have netted me $9.45,, which for one trade at a very low balance is great!
I think what I will do, is set up another account using the DDSMM money management spreadsheet to track how this spreadheet works - as anything that works well can add to the arsenal!
Happy trading!
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Thursday, November 24, 2011
Stopped out last night
Well, as I mentioned yesterday, I was not wholly convinved there woudl be a massive move upwards, and thought I would put my Stop loss at Break even as quickly as possible. Good thing I did, as the trade woudl be in quite a bit of draw down.
Out of the trade with zero loss and zero porfit - my Break even was set at the entry price of 0.91988, so a good result in the end. The max profit I could have acheived would have only been about 4 pips, so it was a bit of a speculative trade that did not quite go to the 20 pip proift I was going after.
Happy trading!
Out of the trade with zero loss and zero porfit - my Break even was set at the entry price of 0.91988, so a good result in the end. The max profit I could have acheived would have only been about 4 pips, so it was a bit of a speculative trade that did not quite go to the 20 pip proift I was going after.
Happy trading!
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Another trade
This time on the USDCHF (again!).
The charts say to opem up on this strategy, so it has been opened, although I do have some signals which say that it will go the other way... as it is, the startegy is such that I need to follow it to the letter...
So USDCHF is a buy @ 0.91988. I have set the stop loss at about 90 pips to start off, but as soon as I am in profit on this one, I shall be going to break even as I am not entirely sure that this one is going to pan out the way I would like... Time will tell, and we have been on a very good run these past 4 trades, so I am happy to take the trade, but will be interesting to see how this one pans out!
Cross fingers, and trust in the trading Gods as such!
Happy trading!
The charts say to opem up on this strategy, so it has been opened, although I do have some signals which say that it will go the other way... as it is, the startegy is such that I need to follow it to the letter...
So USDCHF is a buy @ 0.91988. I have set the stop loss at about 90 pips to start off, but as soon as I am in profit on this one, I shall be going to break even as I am not entirely sure that this one is going to pan out the way I would like... Time will tell, and we have been on a very good run these past 4 trades, so I am happy to take the trade, but will be interesting to see how this one pans out!
Cross fingers, and trust in the trading Gods as such!
Happy trading!
Stopped out
Well, The trade I took this morning was stopped out with another profit!
This time I was stopped out at a profit of 46.9, as I moved by SL to 1.34000 over the course of the trade.
I should point out that I considered halving my position and putting the SL at 50%, so I would have had some profit, adn the ability to let the remaing half run.
I chose instead jsut to move the SL up when i was in profit by about 65 pips, as I am more than happy to take the full profit early as it means less of an effort in tracking the trade over a course of a few days.
What I am trying ot do at the moment is to reduce the maximum stop loss but keep the risk the same, so when I am in profit, I earn a lot more.
I have detailed this bfore, but by halving the maximum stop loss (from say, 150 to 75) I can double my position sizing (from 0.1 to 0.2 for example). This means that I do not have as much wiggle room in terms of price movement into drawdown, but at the same time I DOUBLE my profits.
So far I have not documented original stop loss levels and position sizes, but maybe I should?
Anyway, another profit!!
Happy trading!
This time I was stopped out at a profit of 46.9, as I moved by SL to 1.34000 over the course of the trade.
I should point out that I considered halving my position and putting the SL at 50%, so I would have had some profit, adn the ability to let the remaing half run.
I chose instead jsut to move the SL up when i was in profit by about 65 pips, as I am more than happy to take the full profit early as it means less of an effort in tracking the trade over a course of a few days.
What I am trying ot do at the moment is to reduce the maximum stop loss but keep the risk the same, so when I am in profit, I earn a lot more.
I have detailed this bfore, but by halving the maximum stop loss (from say, 150 to 75) I can double my position sizing (from 0.1 to 0.2 for example). This means that I do not have as much wiggle room in terms of price movement into drawdown, but at the same time I DOUBLE my profits.
So far I have not documented original stop loss levels and position sizes, but maybe I should?
Anyway, another profit!!
Happy trading!
New trade on EURUSD
A new trade was opened on the EURUSD about half an hour ago.
I got into the trade - a sell @ 1.34469.
I have already moved the stop loss to break even, so I now have zero risk on this trade. It is good to let these ride... The great thing about this trade is that it has broken some really massive resistance, and the next major support level is at about 1.31... so we could be looking at quite a nice little profit on this one (although the cliche 'famous last words' come to mind)....
Already I am in profit, and with the safety net of the stop loss being at break even, I am kind of feeling pretty good about this trade.
Putting the stop loss at break even straight away is a major psycological boost to your trading, and yet it could easily swing back and take away any proifts, but the major thing is that I have absolutely no risk - zilch - to my account, so even if this took a massive reversal, the most I could lose is nothing... How brilliant is that!!! This has got to be the single most best thing I have ever learnt.... and that is no lie. The strategy itself is great, but once I am in proift - I can not not lose. A similar thing can be used by using trailing stops. Although very very useful, I am taking more of an active look at the trades, and trying to determine what should happen with it. It is all a learning curve of course, and in the last two trades, the stop loss was put at a level that meant they were stopped out for relatively small gains when the trades themselves could have gone on for many more pips... HOWEVER, they were stopped out at what was a pretty huge resistance/support level, so despite the fact they were stopped out, I made a profit on something that could have easily gone the other way and wiped out those profits and could have easily gone on to be a loss.
Something I learned a long time ago was never complain about a profit. This means taking small profits despite the fact that a trade goes on to make HUGE gains. If you always make a profit, that is great, if you make 1 or 2 losses, you could be in huge draw down which is not good!
Anways - here's to happy trading!!!
I got into the trade - a sell @ 1.34469.
I have already moved the stop loss to break even, so I now have zero risk on this trade. It is good to let these ride... The great thing about this trade is that it has broken some really massive resistance, and the next major support level is at about 1.31... so we could be looking at quite a nice little profit on this one (although the cliche 'famous last words' come to mind)....
Already I am in profit, and with the safety net of the stop loss being at break even, I am kind of feeling pretty good about this trade.
Putting the stop loss at break even straight away is a major psycological boost to your trading, and yet it could easily swing back and take away any proifts, but the major thing is that I have absolutely no risk - zilch - to my account, so even if this took a massive reversal, the most I could lose is nothing... How brilliant is that!!! This has got to be the single most best thing I have ever learnt.... and that is no lie. The strategy itself is great, but once I am in proift - I can not not lose. A similar thing can be used by using trailing stops. Although very very useful, I am taking more of an active look at the trades, and trying to determine what should happen with it. It is all a learning curve of course, and in the last two trades, the stop loss was put at a level that meant they were stopped out for relatively small gains when the trades themselves could have gone on for many more pips... HOWEVER, they were stopped out at what was a pretty huge resistance/support level, so despite the fact they were stopped out, I made a profit on something that could have easily gone the other way and wiped out those profits and could have easily gone on to be a loss.
Something I learned a long time ago was never complain about a profit. This means taking small profits despite the fact that a trade goes on to make HUGE gains. If you always make a profit, that is great, if you make 1 or 2 losses, you could be in huge draw down which is not good!
Anways - here's to happy trading!!!
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
This weeks trading
So things have started out a little slowly this week, however the markets seem to be getting into some direction. We have the potential for a couple of trades this week - just waiting to see if they are viable or not.
I think that because we have some fairly good trends at the moment, it would be very easy to dip in and out with little fear that everything is going to go against you. As I have mentioned at length, the trades that are taken on this blog are only to do with 1 selected strategy - my own creation (which let's face it, is doing pretty well... if i say so myself!) so it is pretty obvious that there are lots of money to be made in the markets, but on this blog you only get 1 of them! This is one of the reasons why trades are not taken everyday. These trending markets are such that there are plenty of opportunities out there - but you need to have a few weapons in your arsenal to ensure that you are always have the opportunity to make good solid trades.
As always, I will keep you posted of any additional plays.
As for my other little investment with JSS Trippler (which is located on the right of this blog) I am starting to really ramp up the amount that I am making, and was talking to someone the other day who showed me how much he was making - $200 a day. He has just bought a top of the line computer, and was still investing more. I am hoping to start withdrawing and adding to my forex account. An additional $50,000 should not really go amiss...!!! I really woudl reccomend that you take a look at it - it is free to browse after all. Check out JSS Trippler through the link on the right and I will be your sponsor and guide you to what you need to do.
As always happy trading!
I think that because we have some fairly good trends at the moment, it would be very easy to dip in and out with little fear that everything is going to go against you. As I have mentioned at length, the trades that are taken on this blog are only to do with 1 selected strategy - my own creation (which let's face it, is doing pretty well... if i say so myself!) so it is pretty obvious that there are lots of money to be made in the markets, but on this blog you only get 1 of them! This is one of the reasons why trades are not taken everyday. These trending markets are such that there are plenty of opportunities out there - but you need to have a few weapons in your arsenal to ensure that you are always have the opportunity to make good solid trades.
As always, I will keep you posted of any additional plays.
As for my other little investment with JSS Trippler (which is located on the right of this blog) I am starting to really ramp up the amount that I am making, and was talking to someone the other day who showed me how much he was making - $200 a day. He has just bought a top of the line computer, and was still investing more. I am hoping to start withdrawing and adding to my forex account. An additional $50,000 should not really go amiss...!!! I really woudl reccomend that you take a look at it - it is free to browse after all. Check out JSS Trippler through the link on the right and I will be your sponsor and guide you to what you need to do.
As always happy trading!
Friday, November 18, 2011
Forex strategies revealed are always the buzz words that are mentioned in any email I get, promising the easiest way to earn money in Forex. How many do I get? At least 5 a day. This is largely due to my first tentative steps into the World of Forex, and looking for a broker etc... You give them your details, and then pretty quickly you are left with a system that is shoddy at best, downright dangerous at worst. And on top of that, you are bombarded with the next great big thing in the World of Forex. Talk to 99% of people, and they can not resist the temptation to find out what it is and discover if this really is the hidden gem that has been missing from their lives for so long.... Let me give you a hint... It is not!!!
The good thing though, is that if you implement and test these strategies, after a while you will be able to make something up yourself that you can actually make work! Yes that is right, if you are willing to put the effort in, you can be successful. How successful? That is down to you and only to you. This can either be daunting, or empowering. Your failure is in your hands, but counter intuitively, more worringly, so is your success.
So how do you go from buying the latest fad, to creating a winning strategy that will actually work?
The process is easy, but very time consuming. If I could give you a guarantee that you would be earning a million pounds, how long would you dedicate to it? A month, a Year, a decade even?
Forex promises riches beyond your wildest dreams, and you can start turning that £10 into £1 million within 3 months (yes they actually expect you to believe that) and I am sure for that 1 person out of millions has been able to do that very thing – the laws of probability says that it can be done, but the laws of probability says that it probably won’t be you...
The most important thing to do is to start on the higher time frames – more people can lose more the lower the time frame they use. There is nothing glorious in losing your hard earned cash within a week... staying in the game is key! This is why Demo accounts are available.
I will say that demo accounts have their pros and cons. What you want to test out on your demo account is simply the strategy that you use. You are testing to see if the mechanics of the system are repeatable and are successful. You are not demoing to become a millionaire, on a live account things change dramatically. What you need to know is that if you were to lift the system from demo to live, the system would work. This is also why using the higher timeframes are key, as profits should be greater, which means that you will not be lulled into a false sense of security when you see only profit – live accounts come with a multitude of fees that are not shown on a demo account.
So you start on a demo account, what should you be looking for? I always start my demo account with an amount of money that I actually have to play with. If you have $1000, why demo an account with $50,000? Is that going to give you realistic expectations? It also trains you to accept that, certainly at the beginning, you are going to be trading with a view to earning $5 per trade as opposed to $1000. There is nothing as disheartening as demoing a huge account, and then start dreaming of what you could spend your money on, and then to start only making a couple of dollars on your real account – human nature says that you will start to take bigger risks as you try to fulfil your expectations. When you do this, say goodbye to Mr. Account!
So you now have your demo account at a level that you can afford, you now need to start thinking about how much you can risk on each trade. This would generally be between 1% - 3% per trade. Your goal is to make 2%-6% on each trade to cover your losses and still be in profit. So how do you go about this?
1 standard lot = $10 per pip
1 mini lot (0.1 of a standard lot) = $1 per pip
1 micro lot (0.01 of a standard lot) = $0.1 per pip
1 nano lot (0.001 of a standard lot) = $0.01 per pip
If you have a $1000 account, each trade should have a maximum risk of $30.
You position your stop loss, ie 150 pips, and then work out how much you can afford per pip – $30/ 150 =0.2.
So your lot size would be 2 micro lots... $0.2 per pip.
A handy formula would is:
#lots = Acct_ size$ x %risk_per_trade x 0.1 / stoploss_pips
So, with a $1000 account X 0.03 X 0.1 / 150 = 0.02 (which is the micro lot)
You could halve your stop loss to 75, and you would be trading with $0.4 per pip. Your risk is still $30 though. Hopefully you can see how this works. If you want to compound your earnings, you can feed the new account details into the above formula. Or you could set this for a week, and then change the levels.
Either way comes with pros and cons, but this is down to the individual as to how they would like to play it.
The change from demo to real should be within a year if the testing is going well (why would you go live with a system that does not work?). The biggest problem that you have on a live account – is YOU! You have to deal with the emotions of seeing your account showing minus numbers. It does happen, and you have to accept that it is something that will happen. Don’t deviate from your max stop loss, as if you were doing everything right in your demo, then this would just be a normal fluctuation. At the end of the day, you would only be losing a max of $30, and should be able to easily grab that back on the next trade..
Happy trading, and hope this helps a little way!
The good thing though, is that if you implement and test these strategies, after a while you will be able to make something up yourself that you can actually make work! Yes that is right, if you are willing to put the effort in, you can be successful. How successful? That is down to you and only to you. This can either be daunting, or empowering. Your failure is in your hands, but counter intuitively, more worringly, so is your success.
So how do you go from buying the latest fad, to creating a winning strategy that will actually work?
The process is easy, but very time consuming. If I could give you a guarantee that you would be earning a million pounds, how long would you dedicate to it? A month, a Year, a decade even?
Forex promises riches beyond your wildest dreams, and you can start turning that £10 into £1 million within 3 months (yes they actually expect you to believe that) and I am sure for that 1 person out of millions has been able to do that very thing – the laws of probability says that it can be done, but the laws of probability says that it probably won’t be you...
The most important thing to do is to start on the higher time frames – more people can lose more the lower the time frame they use. There is nothing glorious in losing your hard earned cash within a week... staying in the game is key! This is why Demo accounts are available.
I will say that demo accounts have their pros and cons. What you want to test out on your demo account is simply the strategy that you use. You are testing to see if the mechanics of the system are repeatable and are successful. You are not demoing to become a millionaire, on a live account things change dramatically. What you need to know is that if you were to lift the system from demo to live, the system would work. This is also why using the higher timeframes are key, as profits should be greater, which means that you will not be lulled into a false sense of security when you see only profit – live accounts come with a multitude of fees that are not shown on a demo account.
So you start on a demo account, what should you be looking for? I always start my demo account with an amount of money that I actually have to play with. If you have $1000, why demo an account with $50,000? Is that going to give you realistic expectations? It also trains you to accept that, certainly at the beginning, you are going to be trading with a view to earning $5 per trade as opposed to $1000. There is nothing as disheartening as demoing a huge account, and then start dreaming of what you could spend your money on, and then to start only making a couple of dollars on your real account – human nature says that you will start to take bigger risks as you try to fulfil your expectations. When you do this, say goodbye to Mr. Account!
So you now have your demo account at a level that you can afford, you now need to start thinking about how much you can risk on each trade. This would generally be between 1% - 3% per trade. Your goal is to make 2%-6% on each trade to cover your losses and still be in profit. So how do you go about this?
1 standard lot = $10 per pip
1 mini lot (0.1 of a standard lot) = $1 per pip
1 micro lot (0.01 of a standard lot) = $0.1 per pip
1 nano lot (0.001 of a standard lot) = $0.01 per pip
If you have a $1000 account, each trade should have a maximum risk of $30.
You position your stop loss, ie 150 pips, and then work out how much you can afford per pip – $30/ 150 =0.2.
So your lot size would be 2 micro lots... $0.2 per pip.
A handy formula would is:
#lots = Acct_ size$ x %risk_per_trade x 0.1 / stoploss_pips
So, with a $1000 account X 0.03 X 0.1 / 150 = 0.02 (which is the micro lot)
You could halve your stop loss to 75, and you would be trading with $0.4 per pip. Your risk is still $30 though. Hopefully you can see how this works. If you want to compound your earnings, you can feed the new account details into the above formula. Or you could set this for a week, and then change the levels.
Either way comes with pros and cons, but this is down to the individual as to how they would like to play it.
The change from demo to real should be within a year if the testing is going well (why would you go live with a system that does not work?). The biggest problem that you have on a live account – is YOU! You have to deal with the emotions of seeing your account showing minus numbers. It does happen, and you have to accept that it is something that will happen. Don’t deviate from your max stop loss, as if you were doing everything right in your demo, then this would just be a normal fluctuation. At the end of the day, you would only be losing a max of $30, and should be able to easily grab that back on the next trade..
Happy trading, and hope this helps a little way!
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Stopped out on both trades
well, I had moved the stop loss up on both trades to ensure that i did not pick up a reversal that I was actually quite worried about - knowing that both were at Support/resistance levels, so really happy with the quick in and out nature of these trades.
GBPUSD was stopped out at 1.58760 for a 24.3 pip profit
USDCHF was stopped out at 0.91400 for a 54.4 pip profit
Here's to some more porfits in the next few days/weeks!
Happy trading!
GBPUSD was stopped out at 1.58760 for a 24.3 pip profit
USDCHF was stopped out at 0.91400 for a 54.4 pip profit
Here's to some more porfits in the next few days/weeks!
Happy trading!
2 trades opened last night
So late last night, there were two trades that opened - one on the GBUSD and one on the USDCHF.
The GBPUSD was a sell order at 1.59003
The USDCHF was a buy order at 0.90856
So far they are both in profit, and what's more important is that I have moved the stop loss to break even. This is something that I will be doing more and more of - moving to breakeven as soon as possible. What this will ensure, is that I will very rarely have a losing trade.
Just a bit of commentary on the trades as they stand -
GPBUSD I am up about 50 pips os far, and it is reaching new lows over the past. It has hit some major support levels, so I will monitor the trade to see whether I will get out or not - if it were to break the resistance, then it could signal a very nice profit! I have locked in 25 pips profit on this trade.
USDCHF - Nearing it's high from September, and I am already in proift by about 100 pips. Again, there are some major resistance levels which will need to be monitored. I have locked in 50 pips aleready on this trade, so regardless of what happens, I am guaranteed a proift which is great!
If for nothing else, this does make the system look better - the more winning trades, the better (but I guess that kind of goes without saying!
What is really heartening about this though, is that in the very very choppy market we have experienced lately, we have not been in it. This is such a major factor - that if you do not knwo how to proift in a market - DON'T GET IN! There are always going to be trades in the market place, so why take rubbish trades??
Anyways- happy trading, and I will keep you posted on how the trades pan out!
The GBPUSD was a sell order at 1.59003
The USDCHF was a buy order at 0.90856
So far they are both in profit, and what's more important is that I have moved the stop loss to break even. This is something that I will be doing more and more of - moving to breakeven as soon as possible. What this will ensure, is that I will very rarely have a losing trade.
Just a bit of commentary on the trades as they stand -
GPBUSD I am up about 50 pips os far, and it is reaching new lows over the past. It has hit some major support levels, so I will monitor the trade to see whether I will get out or not - if it were to break the resistance, then it could signal a very nice profit! I have locked in 25 pips profit on this trade.
USDCHF - Nearing it's high from September, and I am already in proift by about 100 pips. Again, there are some major resistance levels which will need to be monitored. I have locked in 50 pips aleready on this trade, so regardless of what happens, I am guaranteed a proift which is great!
If for nothing else, this does make the system look better - the more winning trades, the better (but I guess that kind of goes without saying!
What is really heartening about this though, is that in the very very choppy market we have experienced lately, we have not been in it. This is such a major factor - that if you do not knwo how to proift in a market - DON'T GET IN! There are always going to be trades in the market place, so why take rubbish trades??
Anyways- happy trading, and I will keep you posted on how the trades pan out!
Monday, November 14, 2011
Possible trades and to take them or not?
So last week was another one which went by without a trade. The important thing here, is that there were some trades which I could have taken. As it turned out, I decided not to take them.
Most people enter into the markets thinking 'This is a great trade set up' and can only see the positive side to the trade with little thought about the potential downside. It is all very well setting stop losses and and position sizing accordingly... that is money management 101, but at the same time, we want to increase the probability that a trade will be successful.
Stop losses and position sizes only control the maximum we are willing to lose - and will not increase or decrease the chances are of winning the trade.
I go into trades thinking 'This is a terrible trade set up' and I try to convince myself that it is a good one.
Stop losses give you a maximum loss per trade - which is great, but minimising the amount of times you lose can be an even more powerful weapon in your arsenal.
If you go into every trade with your guard up - you can look at trades subjectively. I know we all want to have profitable trades, and we want to be in the market to make those profits, but certainly not at the expense of our account. Being subjective and having the mind set that you DO NOT want to trade is key to choosing the correct trades, and the high probability trades. You need to be convinced before you take the trades. The great thing is, is that over time you will be in many trades. Over the course of 5 - 10 years, you will have lots and lots of trades. And the key thing is that if you preserve your capital, you will make more and not lose it. It is far better to be in the game for 20 years with your core capital in tact, than out of the game seeing it sore 100, 200, 1000% percent, only to see it dissapear as quickly as you over trade on 'B' or 'C' trades.
The markets will always be there, but will you? Longevity equals success. That is the bottom line!
Onto the forecast of this weeks trading, the EURO should be settling down a bit after a bailout was agreed, although Italy's prime minister has quit (more uncertainty) and France are possibly next up to default. We are certainly not out of the woods yet, but cross fingers we come out of the other side in tact.
What this means for us, is that we should be getting better trades, and they shoudl be bankers in the next week or so. Here's hoping!
Happy trading!
Most people enter into the markets thinking 'This is a great trade set up' and can only see the positive side to the trade with little thought about the potential downside. It is all very well setting stop losses and and position sizing accordingly... that is money management 101, but at the same time, we want to increase the probability that a trade will be successful.
Stop losses and position sizes only control the maximum we are willing to lose - and will not increase or decrease the chances are of winning the trade.
I go into trades thinking 'This is a terrible trade set up' and I try to convince myself that it is a good one.
Stop losses give you a maximum loss per trade - which is great, but minimising the amount of times you lose can be an even more powerful weapon in your arsenal.
If you go into every trade with your guard up - you can look at trades subjectively. I know we all want to have profitable trades, and we want to be in the market to make those profits, but certainly not at the expense of our account. Being subjective and having the mind set that you DO NOT want to trade is key to choosing the correct trades, and the high probability trades. You need to be convinced before you take the trades. The great thing is, is that over time you will be in many trades. Over the course of 5 - 10 years, you will have lots and lots of trades. And the key thing is that if you preserve your capital, you will make more and not lose it. It is far better to be in the game for 20 years with your core capital in tact, than out of the game seeing it sore 100, 200, 1000% percent, only to see it dissapear as quickly as you over trade on 'B' or 'C' trades.
The markets will always be there, but will you? Longevity equals success. That is the bottom line!
Onto the forecast of this weeks trading, the EURO should be settling down a bit after a bailout was agreed, although Italy's prime minister has quit (more uncertainty) and France are possibly next up to default. We are certainly not out of the woods yet, but cross fingers we come out of the other side in tact.
What this means for us, is that we should be getting better trades, and they shoudl be bankers in the next week or so. Here's hoping!
Happy trading!
Monday, November 7, 2011
Forthcoming week in a nutshell
Well, here we are again - a new week with some new trading opportunities.
The first one that I can see straight off the bat is some major resistance on the USDCAD on the 4 hour chart and all the charts below that, 1h, 30 min, 15 m, 5m and 1 m. The only chart that does not have this resistance is the daily chart. In fact I have taken a sell position in this already - it is not part of this system, so it will not go to the results, but there is a really solid resistance line that it should be a gimme.... although we all know there is no such thing!
As for the other pairs, there is a potential trade on the EURUSD... although I have not taken it. It is not a brilliant set up - ie, it was overbought to long ago to believe that it even fits into the system - it is touch and go at best, so I am leaving this trade. If you wanted ot take a position, it would be a sell, but if it were taken, t'were best be taken quickly and brought to Breakeven point very quickly to lock in profits and limit the losses that could well come from it - it is quickly moving to oversold, so you can probably expect a bounce back.
The issue we have at the moment is the ongoing crisis in Greece that is having a major impact on most of the markets. Greece still does not truly know what it is doing, and from going from a place of security, the PM called a referendum and caused chos through out the Euro zone. No one truly knows how this will play out, so apart from the EURCHF, the waters are very choppy at the moment and hence why there has been no trades recenely - that is not to say that things will not pick up, but certainly I do not want to get into anything until I know which way the trend is blowing.
As always, I will be updating any trades as they become apparant, but expect nothing in the next couple of days (certainly on this strategy, as it will not be producing anything for the time being that I can see...)
Happy trading!
The first one that I can see straight off the bat is some major resistance on the USDCAD on the 4 hour chart and all the charts below that, 1h, 30 min, 15 m, 5m and 1 m. The only chart that does not have this resistance is the daily chart. In fact I have taken a sell position in this already - it is not part of this system, so it will not go to the results, but there is a really solid resistance line that it should be a gimme.... although we all know there is no such thing!
As for the other pairs, there is a potential trade on the EURUSD... although I have not taken it. It is not a brilliant set up - ie, it was overbought to long ago to believe that it even fits into the system - it is touch and go at best, so I am leaving this trade. If you wanted ot take a position, it would be a sell, but if it were taken, t'were best be taken quickly and brought to Breakeven point very quickly to lock in profits and limit the losses that could well come from it - it is quickly moving to oversold, so you can probably expect a bounce back.
The issue we have at the moment is the ongoing crisis in Greece that is having a major impact on most of the markets. Greece still does not truly know what it is doing, and from going from a place of security, the PM called a referendum and caused chos through out the Euro zone. No one truly knows how this will play out, so apart from the EURCHF, the waters are very choppy at the moment and hence why there has been no trades recenely - that is not to say that things will not pick up, but certainly I do not want to get into anything until I know which way the trend is blowing.
As always, I will be updating any trades as they become apparant, but expect nothing in the next couple of days (certainly on this strategy, as it will not be producing anything for the time being that I can see...)
Happy trading!
Friday, November 4, 2011
Review of the weeks trading
Well, in a nutshell, there has been none... or so it seems!
The time frame is such that I do not expect trades everyday, and having those expectations means that I am not wanting to trade every day. If the indicators line up - then I will take a trade, if not, I will not!
One of the key reasons people fail at Forex is going in on substandard signals, and trading too much. By trading less, you improve your chances of success. On top of that, you should also be able to adapt to market conditions, and use all the availale tools to help you succeed. What this means, is that this method relies on a long time frame, and all indicators lining up. In the current market conditions, we have had massive trends with no retracements, which means that this strategy has not produced any trades. However, at the same time, you could have taken a trade on one of these heavily trending markets and still been very profitable. I do trade away from this method, but what I want is a method that is low impact in terms of time, is very proiftable and is stress free. The signals are for the most part automated - there is only a discretionary piece of the jigsaw to decide on the trend - is it strong enough to sustain itself for another 3-4 days where we know that this system will be successful? If the answer is no, then a trade is not taken - depsite all the indicators effectively lining up.
Some of the best guitarists know that it is not what you fill the song with, but the spaces in between which make their tunes great - the same applies with trading. It is not the trades that you are profitable with that makes you a success, it is all the other trades that you did not take that makes you successful.
Trading does not start and end at the charts either. To be a full rounded, confident trader, you need to be reading around the subject (which I have been doing a lot of in the abscence of any trades) and understanding the market drivers. This can only help you make the correct decision in the future to make the trade or not.
Quite frankly, anyone can come onto this blog and look at the open trades, take them, and then come back and close them when I do. They (hopefully) should make a profit... but why settle for that? This is only one strategy I am running, there are plenty of other opportunities out there on shorter time frames - and longer time frames. Reading through this blog will actually help you understand my thinking which could help you to make better calls.
The major things I have been looking at this week include Price action - trying to get a deeper understanding of why things happen, what are the market drivers, and from a couple of simple changes in thought could have netter in man many more pips than is seen on here - and this is a scalable model on time frames too. Bringing the stop loss figures closer to the entry point (which means more profits).
The strategy I use here is very conservative - 3% at risk per trade with a stop loss of 150. This means that the lot sizes are very low for a small account - at the most 0.01, looking at gaining $0.10 per pip. Granted when you hit the 200 pip moves, it is some very stress free ways to make $20, but let's face it, you are hardly going to be able to live on this. But what happens when you have a s/l of 75 pips... suddenly you are onto 0.2 lots... but then again, what happens when you have a stop loss of 50, 25, 10 or even 5 pips... your lot size goes up dramatically, and suddenly those small proifts turn into some very big profits risking the same amount - 3% of your account. Using price action is one way to do this, and catch it right, and you can make lots more cash (which is why we are in this game). This is doable, but takes lots of practice, but that is the position I want to get too.
We shall see!
Here's to next weeks trading, and may it be successful!
The time frame is such that I do not expect trades everyday, and having those expectations means that I am not wanting to trade every day. If the indicators line up - then I will take a trade, if not, I will not!
One of the key reasons people fail at Forex is going in on substandard signals, and trading too much. By trading less, you improve your chances of success. On top of that, you should also be able to adapt to market conditions, and use all the availale tools to help you succeed. What this means, is that this method relies on a long time frame, and all indicators lining up. In the current market conditions, we have had massive trends with no retracements, which means that this strategy has not produced any trades. However, at the same time, you could have taken a trade on one of these heavily trending markets and still been very profitable. I do trade away from this method, but what I want is a method that is low impact in terms of time, is very proiftable and is stress free. The signals are for the most part automated - there is only a discretionary piece of the jigsaw to decide on the trend - is it strong enough to sustain itself for another 3-4 days where we know that this system will be successful? If the answer is no, then a trade is not taken - depsite all the indicators effectively lining up.
Some of the best guitarists know that it is not what you fill the song with, but the spaces in between which make their tunes great - the same applies with trading. It is not the trades that you are profitable with that makes you a success, it is all the other trades that you did not take that makes you successful.
Trading does not start and end at the charts either. To be a full rounded, confident trader, you need to be reading around the subject (which I have been doing a lot of in the abscence of any trades) and understanding the market drivers. This can only help you make the correct decision in the future to make the trade or not.
Quite frankly, anyone can come onto this blog and look at the open trades, take them, and then come back and close them when I do. They (hopefully) should make a profit... but why settle for that? This is only one strategy I am running, there are plenty of other opportunities out there on shorter time frames - and longer time frames. Reading through this blog will actually help you understand my thinking which could help you to make better calls.
The major things I have been looking at this week include Price action - trying to get a deeper understanding of why things happen, what are the market drivers, and from a couple of simple changes in thought could have netter in man many more pips than is seen on here - and this is a scalable model on time frames too. Bringing the stop loss figures closer to the entry point (which means more profits).
The strategy I use here is very conservative - 3% at risk per trade with a stop loss of 150. This means that the lot sizes are very low for a small account - at the most 0.01, looking at gaining $0.10 per pip. Granted when you hit the 200 pip moves, it is some very stress free ways to make $20, but let's face it, you are hardly going to be able to live on this. But what happens when you have a s/l of 75 pips... suddenly you are onto 0.2 lots... but then again, what happens when you have a stop loss of 50, 25, 10 or even 5 pips... your lot size goes up dramatically, and suddenly those small proifts turn into some very big profits risking the same amount - 3% of your account. Using price action is one way to do this, and catch it right, and you can make lots more cash (which is why we are in this game). This is doable, but takes lots of practice, but that is the position I want to get too.
We shall see!
Here's to next weeks trading, and may it be successful!
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
The markets this week
So far this week we have had one potential trade on the EURGBP, however, the trend direction was not sufficient enough to warrant getting into the trade, so I decided to leave it be. It could have easily pinged straight back up, so better trade trade on the better side of valour to save our cash! So far, I think we could have made about 60 pips on when I would have been able to enter the trade, but the potential downside outweighed the risk much more.
The rest of the currency's are either in consolidation mode or have been trending so much, there has not been a pull back good enough for us to enter with confidence.
I am still on the look out for some good trades, and there may be one setup on the horizon, but the trades I am looking for generally have a set up over about 8-12 hours, so depending on how they go, I should be alerted to them pretty early... It is only a problem when the set up lasts longer - as I am generally in bed when they do happen. Happily however, we do tend to long runners, so getting in a couple of hours late is not so much of a problem.
I have been doing lots of reading recently regarding getting better entries to fully take advantage of a move. This would work for this, but the only problem is that we woudl only get an extra 1 - 5 pips. It is certainly something I shall be implementing as those couple of pips will soon add up, but at the same time it is not core to the strategy. It would only represent beteen 1-2% of the total trade, so I won't get too hung up about it.
An additional note on the table for the running bank balance - I am having issues with putting a table in the gadgets on the right hand side (basic stuff I know, but still...) so this is taking a back seat at the moment. I am going to look at trying to have a feed of the trading account, but it will start from $800 again, and I will trade only on MT4. The issue I have, is that I trade on propriety software, mobile software and MT4, so the results I would be able to post would be sketchy at best, and not sure if they would be able to be consolidated into one... No isssue, as the trades as I see them are posted up each day as they happen in any case, and are clolsed when they happen (except maybe for a couple of hours delay due to not being able to update the blog), so at least there is verifiable trades that are occuring which is most important to me. How many times do you see trading services that propose great returns, but then you only get half the returns when you sign up!
I am not selling anything, so that should not be much of a problem, but verifiable proof is most important for anyone who wants to follow the trades I make.
Anyways, I have gone on for quite a bit, so I shall leave it there!
Happy Trading!
The rest of the currency's are either in consolidation mode or have been trending so much, there has not been a pull back good enough for us to enter with confidence.
I am still on the look out for some good trades, and there may be one setup on the horizon, but the trades I am looking for generally have a set up over about 8-12 hours, so depending on how they go, I should be alerted to them pretty early... It is only a problem when the set up lasts longer - as I am generally in bed when they do happen. Happily however, we do tend to long runners, so getting in a couple of hours late is not so much of a problem.
I have been doing lots of reading recently regarding getting better entries to fully take advantage of a move. This would work for this, but the only problem is that we woudl only get an extra 1 - 5 pips. It is certainly something I shall be implementing as those couple of pips will soon add up, but at the same time it is not core to the strategy. It would only represent beteen 1-2% of the total trade, so I won't get too hung up about it.
An additional note on the table for the running bank balance - I am having issues with putting a table in the gadgets on the right hand side (basic stuff I know, but still...) so this is taking a back seat at the moment. I am going to look at trying to have a feed of the trading account, but it will start from $800 again, and I will trade only on MT4. The issue I have, is that I trade on propriety software, mobile software and MT4, so the results I would be able to post would be sketchy at best, and not sure if they would be able to be consolidated into one... No isssue, as the trades as I see them are posted up each day as they happen in any case, and are clolsed when they happen (except maybe for a couple of hours delay due to not being able to update the blog), so at least there is verifiable trades that are occuring which is most important to me. How many times do you see trading services that propose great returns, but then you only get half the returns when you sign up!
I am not selling anything, so that should not be much of a problem, but verifiable proof is most important for anyone who wants to follow the trades I make.
Anyways, I have gone on for quite a bit, so I shall leave it there!
Happy Trading!
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