Time off

Just a quick message to say that I took last week off from looking at the markets due to other work commitments, which meant that I could not update my blog, and it also meant that I was not able to follow the markets that well.

With that in mind, I shall endeavor to let you know BEFORE I take a leave of abscence - of course sometimes that will not be possible, but I will endeavor to do so just so that you need not keep checking back all of the time.

Anyways, this does bring up a good point - I do feel refreshed coming back to looking at the markets, and it is important to have a life away from them. There is nothing better than a trader who is fresh and able to bring energy to the markets... It may sound strange, but energy is what is needed. You need to spend some time going through the markets each and every day, and It can quickly get quite tiring... taking time away can renew and refresh, and just remember, the markets are ALWAYS there (although some currencies may not... EURO !!! ;)

It is a worrying time in all seriousnes though, as the Euro zone represents the largest economy on Earth... 3 times as big as the US banks... that is certainly food for thought. If the Euro were to fail, there will be massive implications on all the markets around the World - not just currency, but equities as well as futures and the whole shabang.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Will the Euro fail? I would say probably not, but who thought Enron would fail, or Lehmann brothers or Northern Rock, or the (now) publicly owned banks in the UK....

Nothing is certain, but keep your eyes open for opportunities!!!

As it is, there is nothing on the horizion at the moment in terms of trades, but will be looking for them this week!

Happy trading

Possible trades and to take them or not?

So last week was another one which went by without a trade. The important thing here, is that there were some trades which I could have taken. As it turned out, I decided not to take them.

Most people enter into the markets thinking 'This is a great trade set up' and can only see the positive side to the trade with little thought about the potential downside. It is all very well setting stop losses and and position sizing accordingly... that is money management 101, but at the same time, we want to increase the probability that a trade will be successful.

Stop losses and position sizes only control the maximum we are willing to lose - and will not increase or decrease the chances are of winning the trade.

I go into trades thinking 'This is a terrible trade set up' and I try to convince myself that it is a good one.

Stop losses give you a maximum loss per trade - which is great, but minimising the amount of times you lose can be an even more powerful weapon in your arsenal.

If you go into every trade with your guard up - you can look at trades subjectively. I know we all want to have profitable trades, and we want to be in the market to make those profits, but certainly not at the expense of our account. Being subjective and having the mind set that you DO NOT want to trade is key to choosing the correct trades, and the high probability trades. You need to be convinced before you take the trades. The great thing is, is that over time you will be in many trades. Over the course of 5 - 10 years, you will have lots and lots of trades. And the key thing is that if you preserve your capital, you will make more and not lose it. It is far better to be in the game for 20 years with your core capital in tact, than out of the game seeing it sore 100, 200, 1000% percent, only to see it dissapear as quickly as you over trade on 'B' or 'C' trades.

The markets will always be there, but will you? Longevity equals success. That is the bottom line!

Onto the forecast of this weeks trading, the EURO should be settling down a bit after a bailout was agreed, although Italy's prime minister has quit (more uncertainty) and France are possibly next up to default. We are certainly not out of the woods yet, but cross fingers we come out of the other side in tact.

What this means for us, is that we should be getting better trades, and they shoudl be bankers in the next week or so. Here's hoping!

Happy trading!

Forthcoming week in a nutshell

Well, here we are again - a new week with some new trading opportunities.

The first one that I can see straight off the bat is some major resistance on the USDCAD on the 4 hour chart and all the charts below that, 1h, 30 min, 15 m, 5m and 1 m. The only chart that does not have this resistance is the daily chart. In fact I have taken a sell position in this already - it is not part of this system, so it will not go to the results, but there is a really solid resistance line that it should be a gimme.... although we all know there is no such thing!

As for the other pairs, there is a potential trade on the EURUSD... although I have not taken it. It is not a brilliant set up - ie, it was overbought to long ago to believe that it even fits into the system - it is touch and go at best, so I am leaving this trade. If you wanted ot take a position, it would be a sell, but if it were taken, t'were best be taken quickly and brought to Breakeven point very quickly to lock in profits and limit the losses that could well come from it - it is quickly moving to oversold, so you can probably expect a bounce back.

The issue we have at the moment is the ongoing crisis in Greece that is having a major impact on most of the markets. Greece still does not truly know what it is doing, and from going from a place of security, the PM called a referendum and caused chos through out the Euro zone. No one truly knows how this will play out, so apart from the EURCHF, the waters are very choppy at the moment and hence why there has been no trades recenely - that is not to say that things will not pick up, but certainly I do not want to get into anything until I know which way the trend is blowing.

As always, I will be updating any trades as they become apparant, but expect nothing in the next couple of days (certainly on this strategy, as it will not be producing anything for the time being that I can see...)

Happy trading!