Well, what a week it was. We had one trade that netted us 90+ pips. That is a great result. However, my prediction came true, and the USDCAD pair dropped like a stone, and we could have picked up additional pips - the trade set up was actually perfect - but I missed the boat by a couple of hours, and by that time, the opportunity passed. This would have turned into a potential high risk low reward trade. It is easy to look back and say that it would have been a good decision to jump in the trade, but at the time, you do not have the liberty to see what happens in the future!
What was not so great is that we had a trade setup on about 4 different charts which would have netted over 1000 pips all combined (mainly off the back of the Euro). I missed these as I was simply not in time to take the trades and be 'guaranteed' the profitability I was after. I think I could have jumped on the bandwagon and tried to pick up 10 - 50 pips, but the risk was simply not worth it. It does seem a bit silly to try to force these trades. We could happily do 4-8 a month, and with that we should see some nice returns. The trades we are taking are all high percentage trades with high profits attached to them.
All in all, I am pleased with this so far, and hopefully any one who wants to jump on the bandwagon will be pleased as well.
I have been looking at shorter time frames to ramp up the proiftability of my trading, but at the moment, I have not got the time to dedicate to it, although it would be great if I could have the time as I would certainly give it a go. At the same time, the results here would still be strictly for this strategy.
The success and failure of a system is judged on results - so far we are winning more than we are losing, and we are gaining more pips than losing. This is certainly a great start, but I am trying to stay rooted to the ground here, for the very fact that a trading strategy is judged over the long term - hundreds and thousands of trades- so this is still very very much in its infancy.
The trends are very strong in the markets at the moment, so away from this strategy, you may want to jump on the bandwagon and seek a few pips on the ride.
As an aside, if you can use nano lots on your account (1 pip = $0.01), then starting with a $800 account (about £500) you would be now sitting on 881.35 - an increase of just over 10%. This is taking into account the losing trades as well!!!
In actual fact, I am going to add another widget which will show an $800 account (i prefer to work in USD as the pips are easier to calculate).
Anyways, here's to a relaxing weekend, and some more....
Happy trading! :)
Friday, October 28, 2011
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
USDCAD Trade closed out
Well, the USDCAD trade has closed, and I was filled at 1.00292 due to my trailing stop, I had shortened it this morning after the run downwards, so quite happy that I did, otherwise I would not have made as much profit.
As it stands I achieved a profit of 94.2 pips on that trade, not too bad at all.
One thing to note, is that I can see it making it's way back down again, but I am not too concerned with direction AFTER I am out of the trade.
The main thing is profits, and we are getting plenty of them!
Happy trading!
As it stands I achieved a profit of 94.2 pips on that trade, not too bad at all.
One thing to note, is that I can see it making it's way back down again, but I am not too concerned with direction AFTER I am out of the trade.
The main thing is profits, and we are getting plenty of them!
Happy trading!
Monday, October 24, 2011
back to guaranteed profits
Well, the USDCAD trade has tipped itself over 50 pips porift, so the trailing stop has now kicked in, and we are guaranteed profits (again!). It is nice to return to profitability since the last trade was a negative (but subsequently went into some big profit!).
Trading rules are there for a reason, and by abiding by them, we will win more than we lose, and win more bucks than we lose!!
As an aside, there were quite a few great trade setups for lots of different currencies, I missed these as they came at times I was not expecting. This probably means we won't get some trades in the next few days, but it is always better to under trade than over trade, so let's not worry too much about that!
Also, I have decided not to use the strategy on the metal trading. It may be that in a few months time it will be reinserted, but at the moment I do not understand the margin levels, and how it works in the software of my choice... So we will see what happens over time, but I am closing the trade (although this was never going to count against the Forex trading account).
Happy trading, and keep it up!
Trading rules are there for a reason, and by abiding by them, we will win more than we lose, and win more bucks than we lose!!
As an aside, there were quite a few great trade setups for lots of different currencies, I missed these as they came at times I was not expecting. This probably means we won't get some trades in the next few days, but it is always better to under trade than over trade, so let's not worry too much about that!
Also, I have decided not to use the strategy on the metal trading. It may be that in a few months time it will be reinserted, but at the moment I do not understand the margin levels, and how it works in the software of my choice... So we will see what happens over time, but I am closing the trade (although this was never going to count against the Forex trading account).
Happy trading, and keep it up!
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Back in with the USDCAD
We have had another trade triggered with the USDCAD. This time it is a sell. I got into this about an hour or two ago at 1.01234 (seriously!).
This has a strong trend going downwards, so I am a little more confident about this than the EURCHF. I think that was the major problem with the EURCHF trade, is that for a start it was whipsawing, and because of that, there was no strong trend. On that note I would say that it was me being wrong to get into the trade rather than the strategy/charts with the wrong signal. It is a learning point, and one I will be remembering. The strategy is supposed to target trades with a huge chance of going to profitability, and some of that is paying a little more attention to what the charts tell me!!!
Any way, here's to some more good trades, and hopefully more profitability!
This has a strong trend going downwards, so I am a little more confident about this than the EURCHF. I think that was the major problem with the EURCHF trade, is that for a start it was whipsawing, and because of that, there was no strong trend. On that note I would say that it was me being wrong to get into the trade rather than the strategy/charts with the wrong signal. It is a learning point, and one I will be remembering. The strategy is supposed to target trades with a huge chance of going to profitability, and some of that is paying a little more attention to what the charts tell me!!!
Any way, here's to some more good trades, and hopefully more profitability!
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
First loser
Ok, so last night, the charts went against us, and they told us to get out of dodge...
It was only a 50 pip loss, so no disaster, and you have to expect losers and hope for winners - that is just the nature of the game. Following proper money management, this will not be a big issue... After all, so far for every loser we are having 2 or 3 winners.
The stop loss was not hit, but the technicals on the chart says to get out, so that is what we have done - it was ironic that it came out at exactly 50 pips (I only put a trailing stop of 50 pips when I am guaranteed a return of 50 pips...).
What is really reassuring, is that the strategy is working - exits are the most important thing, and the ability to mechanically get in or stay in is a big bonus.
Looking at the chart, I was hoping for a breakout, and we got stopped around resistance, so it all adds up... The EURCHF is whipsawing a bit, we had a bit of a runup, and at the moment it can not decide what it wants to do, but no worries, I am sure we will be back to winning ways very soon.
Happy trading!
It was only a 50 pip loss, so no disaster, and you have to expect losers and hope for winners - that is just the nature of the game. Following proper money management, this will not be a big issue... After all, so far for every loser we are having 2 or 3 winners.
The stop loss was not hit, but the technicals on the chart says to get out, so that is what we have done - it was ironic that it came out at exactly 50 pips (I only put a trailing stop of 50 pips when I am guaranteed a return of 50 pips...).
What is really reassuring, is that the strategy is working - exits are the most important thing, and the ability to mechanically get in or stay in is a big bonus.
Looking at the chart, I was hoping for a breakout, and we got stopped around resistance, so it all adds up... The EURCHF is whipsawing a bit, we had a bit of a runup, and at the moment it can not decide what it wants to do, but no worries, I am sure we will be back to winning ways very soon.
Happy trading!
Monday, October 17, 2011
XAGUSD triggered
Just a quick update, another trigger has happened today, and this is on the XAGUSD. This is a metal trade - silver to be precise. At the moment, this is to see if the stratgy works on here, and how it all plays out, but thought that I had better mention it.
The trade was open as a buy @ 32.21985.
Happy trading
The trade was open as a buy @ 32.21985.
Happy trading
EURCHF triggered
Late on Friday night, we got the trigger to buy the EURCHF - Again, I am not sure whether this will go to profit or not, but the trade is such that the rules say to follow it! Stop loss is 150 for this, and 3% risked.
I only bought this this morning, so some of the move might have already happened - we will have to wait and see, but time will tell us.
So, we have bought the EURCHF at 1.23965 - so at the moment of writing, it has gone into loss of 45 pips, but the good news is that it is massively oversold, so I would expect to see a bounceback.... although what I expect, and what the charts says does not always mean that what you expect will actually happen.
Should be an interesting trade to see what happens.
It should be trailed quite closely though, as the chart is turning...
Happy trading
I only bought this this morning, so some of the move might have already happened - we will have to wait and see, but time will tell us.
So, we have bought the EURCHF at 1.23965 - so at the moment of writing, it has gone into loss of 45 pips, but the good news is that it is massively oversold, so I would expect to see a bounceback.... although what I expect, and what the charts says does not always mean that what you expect will actually happen.
Should be an interesting trade to see what happens.
It should be trailed quite closely though, as the chart is turning...
Happy trading
Friday, October 14, 2011
Another week down
So, another week has passed, and so far we have had 2 trades which have been taken and profited, and zero losers.
while on the surface of things, it looks a little bleak - only having two trades, what is important to remember is that overtrading is the worst thing that we can do. Forcing trades=losing trades.
I am actually glad that we have had no trades this week - I know it sounds strange, but the way the markets are moving we are best being out of them at this time - we are looking for high probability trades that have next to no risk. At the moment the system is working. This is the nature of this particular strategy - one thing though, With my broker I can trade gold and silver - these have been added to my watch list, so do not be surprised if I start talking about these - they will work exactly like any currency pair.
I have also set up a bit more of an agressive system that trys to get in a little earlier which will ramp up the profits. Backtesting it, it looks promising, but forward testing is the real litmus test. This is found on
101percentforex.blogspot.com
This is only a demo, and I am not really paying heed to money management - I am only taking small positions, and seeing what the win ratio is - not the risk reward at the moment.
Happy trading, and will see you next week!
while on the surface of things, it looks a little bleak - only having two trades, what is important to remember is that overtrading is the worst thing that we can do. Forcing trades=losing trades.
I am actually glad that we have had no trades this week - I know it sounds strange, but the way the markets are moving we are best being out of them at this time - we are looking for high probability trades that have next to no risk. At the moment the system is working. This is the nature of this particular strategy - one thing though, With my broker I can trade gold and silver - these have been added to my watch list, so do not be surprised if I start talking about these - they will work exactly like any currency pair.
I have also set up a bit more of an agressive system that trys to get in a little earlier which will ramp up the profits. Backtesting it, it looks promising, but forward testing is the real litmus test. This is found on
101percentforex.blogspot.com
This is only a demo, and I am not really paying heed to money management - I am only taking small positions, and seeing what the win ratio is - not the risk reward at the moment.
Happy trading, and will see you next week!
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Nothing on the horizon as of yet
Well, Wednedsday is here, and we still have no trades worthy of taking - in actual fact, there is very little going on that I would be happy to get into at the moment. The markets seem to be going a little bit crazy, but my eye is firmly on the CHF at the moment.
Both the USD and GBP pairs with the CHF show some promise, but little else at the moment. It is certainly not a certainty of which way the trade woudl go if we got in right now. The CHF had a big dip and I am expecting it to rise again - how much and if it meets the criteria to trigger a trade - I am not sure. The best thing traders can do is to enter into trades without emotion.
If you have fear going into a trade, a couple of things will happen:
a) You will close the trade because it goes negative, and your initial thoughts were proved true - except that it goes to massive profitability... the fear meant that you got out of the trade against what the trading plan tells you!
b)The trade goes into profit straight away, has a little retreat and you close the trade with a small profit. Although this is not the worst scenario, again it goes against the trading plan which is bad for traders. I always say that you shoudl never begrudge the profits you make, but the whole point of being a trader is to follow your trading plan. This is your trading bible, and it is imperative that it is followed (otherwise you may as we try your hand at gambling).
Your trading plan is the one thing that puts you ahead of all the other traders out there, and the ones who follow the trading plan will be the ones who succeed in the long run. This can not be stated strongly enough.
Money management is the next level. If you have a trading plan, money management should be part of this in any case. I am going to look at putting something on my blog that can be downloaded for everyone which details what a trading plan should look like.
This is the most boring part of trading... but it is also the most important and vital thing. Ultimately, trading should not be exciting. If it is, you are opening up yourself to emotion - and most scarily greed. If this is the case, you will lose money. There is very few ifs and buts about this. As I mentioned in an earlier post - check out market wizards - this is a real eye opener in terms of mindset of traders (proftiable ones, and very successful ones at that!!!).
Anyway, here's to picking the RIGHT trades, and getting in (and out) at the right times!
Happy trading, and look out for the trading plan manual in the coming weeks or so.
Both the USD and GBP pairs with the CHF show some promise, but little else at the moment. It is certainly not a certainty of which way the trade woudl go if we got in right now. The CHF had a big dip and I am expecting it to rise again - how much and if it meets the criteria to trigger a trade - I am not sure. The best thing traders can do is to enter into trades without emotion.
If you have fear going into a trade, a couple of things will happen:
a) You will close the trade because it goes negative, and your initial thoughts were proved true - except that it goes to massive profitability... the fear meant that you got out of the trade against what the trading plan tells you!
b)The trade goes into profit straight away, has a little retreat and you close the trade with a small profit. Although this is not the worst scenario, again it goes against the trading plan which is bad for traders. I always say that you shoudl never begrudge the profits you make, but the whole point of being a trader is to follow your trading plan. This is your trading bible, and it is imperative that it is followed (otherwise you may as we try your hand at gambling).
Your trading plan is the one thing that puts you ahead of all the other traders out there, and the ones who follow the trading plan will be the ones who succeed in the long run. This can not be stated strongly enough.
Money management is the next level. If you have a trading plan, money management should be part of this in any case. I am going to look at putting something on my blog that can be downloaded for everyone which details what a trading plan should look like.
This is the most boring part of trading... but it is also the most important and vital thing. Ultimately, trading should not be exciting. If it is, you are opening up yourself to emotion - and most scarily greed. If this is the case, you will lose money. There is very few ifs and buts about this. As I mentioned in an earlier post - check out market wizards - this is a real eye opener in terms of mindset of traders (proftiable ones, and very successful ones at that!!!).
Anyway, here's to picking the RIGHT trades, and getting in (and out) at the right times!
Happy trading, and look out for the trading plan manual in the coming weeks or so.
Monday, October 10, 2011
Back to business
So, I am back from the Czech republic and I am looking forward to this weeks trades to come.
So far, looking through the different currecny pairs, there is only one which potentially has the chance to go into an acceptable trade in the near future - that is the USDCHF pair. Not a massively common one when you compare it to the likes of the EURUSD, or the GBPEUR - but I am not going to complain if I can make money from it, and neither can you. The great thing about trading on a longer time period means that we can trade on more exotic currency pairs - it gives us a lot more scope to buy and sell on things other traders woudl not and can not consider. If you look at some of the exotics, they have a pip spread of 20 pips or more - try making money off those when you are scalping!
Of course saying that, I do believe that you should have lots of strings ot your bow, so I am certainly not against scalpers... far from it. So far, I have just found nothing that could make me consistent returns - which is ultimately what I am looking for!
So anyway, back to the USDCHF...
Basically it has been trending upwards for a time, and it looks like there has been a pull back, and in the next few hours/days, I would expect it to bounce back up again. Just have to wait to get the signal that says to buy (this is going to be a buy signal if anything!)
So keep an eye out, and we will be in a trade before we know it.
One thing I would say, is that anything with the EUR would have been a good thing to buy on fundamentals. Look at the charts, and you will see them ALL rising by a good 3-4 hundred pips over the last few days (of tradable times that is). If I was able to have traded them I would have done (although not part of this strategy).
Ultimately one strategy will never catch all movements, and it is important to understand when you could or should break from a winning strategy... or at least have multiple strategies, but split your accounts up accordingly to trade monies from certain accounts, otherwise it makes it very hard to track your progress for each individual strategy..
As it stands of course, this blog is only about my own strategy, on the longer periods - trying ot catch what seems to be between 150-350 pip moves.
Anyway, keep alert, and watch for those trades - they will come eventually, and when they do we will be on board the train to happiness!! (very corny, but very true!)
Happy trading!
So far, looking through the different currecny pairs, there is only one which potentially has the chance to go into an acceptable trade in the near future - that is the USDCHF pair. Not a massively common one when you compare it to the likes of the EURUSD, or the GBPEUR - but I am not going to complain if I can make money from it, and neither can you. The great thing about trading on a longer time period means that we can trade on more exotic currency pairs - it gives us a lot more scope to buy and sell on things other traders woudl not and can not consider. If you look at some of the exotics, they have a pip spread of 20 pips or more - try making money off those when you are scalping!
Of course saying that, I do believe that you should have lots of strings ot your bow, so I am certainly not against scalpers... far from it. So far, I have just found nothing that could make me consistent returns - which is ultimately what I am looking for!
So anyway, back to the USDCHF...
Basically it has been trending upwards for a time, and it looks like there has been a pull back, and in the next few hours/days, I would expect it to bounce back up again. Just have to wait to get the signal that says to buy (this is going to be a buy signal if anything!)
So keep an eye out, and we will be in a trade before we know it.
One thing I would say, is that anything with the EUR would have been a good thing to buy on fundamentals. Look at the charts, and you will see them ALL rising by a good 3-4 hundred pips over the last few days (of tradable times that is). If I was able to have traded them I would have done (although not part of this strategy).
Ultimately one strategy will never catch all movements, and it is important to understand when you could or should break from a winning strategy... or at least have multiple strategies, but split your accounts up accordingly to trade monies from certain accounts, otherwise it makes it very hard to track your progress for each individual strategy..
As it stands of course, this blog is only about my own strategy, on the longer periods - trying ot catch what seems to be between 150-350 pip moves.
Anyway, keep alert, and watch for those trades - they will come eventually, and when they do we will be on board the train to happiness!! (very corny, but very true!)
Happy trading!
Wednesday, October 5, 2011
Another money maker
Well, the trade closed after the trailing stop was hit with a profit of 231 pips. We got out of the trade at 1.0524.
It is quite difficult getting all the info, as I do not have access to my charts, and what I can access is really quite limited.
Anyway, we have increased our bank by 8.8% in total. Our last trade hit 4.6% which for one trade at our conservative trading, is great - 3% with a stop loss of 150!
If you wanted to be a bit more aggresive, you could double your lot size to 2 micro lots, and you woudl have increased your bank by 16%! This however does come with a downside, as you would have to increase your risk (to 6% per trade) or halve your stop loss... neither was attractive on this trade, as I believed that there was a good chance that this could have gone against us quite a lot. However as it is, I am very happy with the results so far. I hope the above shows just how versatile you can be with your risk, but there are pros and cons to both. I think that in the first trade, there was a big move downwards in one period, and it dropped by about 100 pips, so it could have left you out of a trade that went on to make a nice profit... of course, it does mean that your risk reward is increased, but if you get more losing trades... It all adds up in the end.
Happy trading everyone, and I will start back up next week. The rest is a holiday (albeit a working one at the moment!)
It is quite difficult getting all the info, as I do not have access to my charts, and what I can access is really quite limited.
Anyway, we have increased our bank by 8.8% in total. Our last trade hit 4.6% which for one trade at our conservative trading, is great - 3% with a stop loss of 150!
If you wanted to be a bit more aggresive, you could double your lot size to 2 micro lots, and you woudl have increased your bank by 16%! This however does come with a downside, as you would have to increase your risk (to 6% per trade) or halve your stop loss... neither was attractive on this trade, as I believed that there was a good chance that this could have gone against us quite a lot. However as it is, I am very happy with the results so far. I hope the above shows just how versatile you can be with your risk, but there are pros and cons to both. I think that in the first trade, there was a big move downwards in one period, and it dropped by about 100 pips, so it could have left you out of a trade that went on to make a nice profit... of course, it does mean that your risk reward is increased, but if you get more losing trades... It all adds up in the end.
Happy trading everyone, and I will start back up next week. The rest is a holiday (albeit a working one at the moment!)
Monday, October 3, 2011
Away for a couple of days, but the trade is still going strong
Well, the USDCAD has now run up gains of about 200 pips, so we are well into profit which is great news.
Unfortunately I am on business in the Czech republic, and I can not access most of my accounts (and even Blogger is now showing up in Czech, and I do not know how to change it... I can not read it!)
No big drama, the trailing stop will kick in so I won't lose much cash if it were to go against me, but that is ok in any case as we are well into proift and have added at least another 3% to the bankroll. I just wish I could see my charts to know whether I should be in another trade... You just watch, i will come back to the UK, and will be telling you how I should have been in loads of trades and would have earned X amount of dollars ;). The annoying thing, is that I could see a change in the markets... whether that led to a trade setup, I do not know though, but hindsight will always be 20/20.
Any way, I might not be posting this week because it is tough trying to get the information... although, I may post something about Forex in general at some time this week... just to get it off my chest.
Happy trading all!
Unfortunately I am on business in the Czech republic, and I can not access most of my accounts (and even Blogger is now showing up in Czech, and I do not know how to change it... I can not read it!)
No big drama, the trailing stop will kick in so I won't lose much cash if it were to go against me, but that is ok in any case as we are well into proift and have added at least another 3% to the bankroll. I just wish I could see my charts to know whether I should be in another trade... You just watch, i will come back to the UK, and will be telling you how I should have been in loads of trades and would have earned X amount of dollars ;). The annoying thing, is that I could see a change in the markets... whether that led to a trade setup, I do not know though, but hindsight will always be 20/20.
Any way, I might not be posting this week because it is tough trying to get the information... although, I may post something about Forex in general at some time this week... just to get it off my chest.
Happy trading all!
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